Can Rotherham United defy the odds in the Championship? Don't go betting against it

THE emails began as a trickle and, as the Championship season grew closer, became a flood.  

The bookmakers were letting football journalists know what they thought would happen in the 2023/24 campaign that kicks off this weekend.

The senders were many: Betview, BetVictor, loads more; different companies all saying the same thing: Rotherham United are favourites for the drop.

That won't bother the Millers one bit as they head to Stoke City on Saturday's opening day. They were supposed to go down last term and we all know what happened then.

“The target is to improve on last season,” said manager Matt Taylor, the man who led them to a first second-tier survival since 2016. “We got to 50 points and finished 19th. We know that if we improve on 50 points we've got a hell of a chance of staying in the league.

“While we're doing that, we want to play a certain type of football. We want our fans to enjoy coming to watch us. They've got to see what Rotherham United stand for first and foremost in terms of the heart, substance, real desire and grit and how hard we make it for opposition teams. Then we have to have a little bit of style on top of that. I think people can sense that's what we're moving towards without forgetting our identity.”

Taylor, the occupier of the hot-seat since October, has at his disposal arguably the strongest Rotherham squad of the last 20 years, one full of Championship know-how.

Unlike in previous years, these aren't League One players hoping to prove themselves in the division above, these are players who've been there and done it and have the capacity to do it again.

Those new to the level last season stood up in the push for survival and will be all the better for the experience.

The Millers look strong and experienced at the back, as long as enough players stay fit, clever and combative in midfield and are starting to add extra attacking dimensions.

They also have a goalkeeper at least as good as anything in the division.

Further signings are planned between now and the September 1 close of the transfer window and the manager and the head of recruitment, Rob Scott, seem to be forging an effective partnership when it comes to bringing in talent.

Maybe their biggest strength of all is Taylor himself, a driven, pragmatic leader and astute tactician who can assess a group of players as well as he can dissect a game.

“We have to be realistic about what we are at this level but we have to be ambitious as well,” he said. “We want to be competitive in every game and put our best in front of teams. We know that should be good enough to get us a certain amount of points. If you get beyond 50 points, you're pushing towards midtable. If you push to midtable, you never know what might happen off the back of that.

“I can't sit here and talk about play-offs or promotion; that's a longer-term aim than just next season. But we're certainly going to be bullish in terms of what we can achieve.”

The press releases continued to arrive but now some of them had a different slant on next term's affairs. They weren't making a fuss about Rotherham's short odds for the drop any longer, they were touting the Millers as the team least likely to go up.

40/1 from Betview, in case you're interested. Leicester City 5/4 favourites for promotion.

“The bookies and pundits have done my team talk for me,” Taylor said. “I think we'll always be favourites to go down at Championship level due to the size and the stature of the club. We're looking to change people's minds about us.

“I don't feel the players need any more motivation. They're already so, so professional in how they approach every single day. Last season's experience has certainly given them more belief.”

He name-checked the old guard at the back who have returned on one-year deals, Lee Peltier, Sean Morrison, Grant Hall and Tyler Blackett: “They're the ones who are leading the changing room. They understand this league. We've got to try to keep them fit for longer than we did last season.”

That “little bit of style” he talked of will come primarily from new boy Cafu. The Portuguese midfielder opens up play, opens up possibilities and doesn't give the ball away. The Millers simply haven't had players of his talent in the past.

His set-piece deliveries drip with so much danger that they're a goal waiting to happen and Taylor is frustrated that the playmaker’s teammates haven't managed to take advantage during the dress rehearsal of summer friendlies.

“I'm going to keep banging my head against every single player in the changing room until we score a header from a corner or wide free-kick,” the boss said.

Record 7,000-plus season-ticket sales suggest supporters are believing in the same vein as the players. Taylor needs AESSEAL New York Stadium to remain a place of trepidation for visiting teams while the Millers increase their threat on the road.

“We know the strength of our ground and the way some teams feel when they come here,” he said. “We have to do better away from home. We're trying to look slightly different in how we control games. Last season we weren't able to keep the ball for long enough periods to take some pressure off us.”

The chairman has stuck to his pledge to up the spending and a flurry of recent arrivals, with the promise of more to come, has raised spirits.

Dexter Lembikisa is a top-flight prospect looking to make a mark, Fred Onyedinma could fill much of the gap left by Chiedozie Ogbene and Andre Green is at a good age to become what he was shaping up to be earlier in his career.

Taylor had the air of a relatively content man as we chatted on the touchline at the LNER Stadium following a 3-0 win against Lincoln City in the final pre-season friendly.

“Are you ready?” I asked him. “Are your team ready?” “Nearly,” he replied. “The window is still open. We need more bodies - I think that is a fair assessment. The younger players who have been coming on to the pitch in pre-season games, they won't be coming on to the pitch at Stoke.”

It's a tougher division this time around; “a monster,” said the manager, reflecting on the teams who have come down and up and those revived by new ownership or big spending. But then Rotherham will be a tougher proposition.

Fifty points, 19th spot ... a repeat of last year would represent another season of success.

Someone email the bookmakers. The Millers upset the odds in 2022/23 and look capable of doing so again.